1. The Onset of Rising Inflation (January 2021 – July 2021):
During this period, there was a gradual increase in inflation rates, starting from a modest 1.4% in January 2021 and ascending to 5.4% by mid-year. This phase signifies the initial steps into an inflationary environment, possibly fueled by economic recovery efforts post-pandemic, increased consumer spending, and potential disruptions in the global supply chain.

2. Sustained High Inflation Era (August 2021 – December 2021):
Inflation rates not only remained elevated but also continued an upward trajectory during these months, peaking at 7% by the year’s end. This phase of prolonged high inflation might reflect continued challenges in supply chains, labor market constraints, and robust consumer demand, likely spurred by various fiscal stimulus measures.

3. Peak Inflation and Subsequent Fluctuations (January 2022 – September 2022):
This period was marked by the highest inflation rate of 9.1% in June 2022 and characterized by significant fluctuations. The peak and the variability that followed indicate ongoing economic pressures and responses. Contributing factors likely included fluctuating energy prices, persistent supply chain issues, and the effects of monetary policies aimed at curbing inflation.

4. Deceleration and Moderation (October 2022 – October 2023):
Starting from October 2022, a noticeable downward trend in inflation rates was observed, culminating in a rate of 3.2% by October 2023. This gradual decrease suggests the potential effectiveness of policy interventions, such as interest rate adjustments, and a stabilization in supply chains and market demands. It also indicates a phase of economic recalibration, where inflationary pressures began to ease, albeit remaining above pre-pandemic levels.

This analysis underscores a period marked by significant economic shifts, reflective of a complex interplay of global and domestic factors, including recovery dynamics from the pandemic, fiscal and monetary policies, energy market trends, and global supply chain stability. The pattern of rising, peaking, and then moderating inflation rates points to the multifaceted nature of economic forces and the impact of strategic policy responses.

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by: Lindsay Alston